There are some parallels between the 1920's / 1930's and the 1990's / 2000's but the differences are far greater. Both 1920's and 1990's were huge boom years for the United States economy. Both the 1930's and 2000's saw large busts. Those are the parallels.
However, the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank were far different in both cases. In the 1930's, the Fed (which had only been around since the mid-1910's) made a huge mistake by contracting the money supply and making it harder to borrow money. This is what led to the Great Depression, not the stock market crash of 1929 (as many believe). Their reasoning for contracting seemed valid at the time but it turned out to be disastrous. (A discussion of the reasoning involves the use of borrowed money to buy stocks, a technique called margining. Suffice to say, borrowing money to buy an investment that can lose money is very risky. How would you like to lose $10,000 of borrowed money? Not only did you lose the money, you still have to pay it back!)
The resulting Great Depression is not something we ever want to experience again. Very few of us alive today could begin to imagine what it would be like if one out of every fourth person were unemployed. It is not being an alarmist to say that the best we could wish for would be widespread protests and calls for a different type of economic system. The worst case scenarios are not something we even want to speculate upon.
After the stock market mania of the 1990's, the Fed believed that a loose monetary policy was the key to keeping another serious recession (or even a depression) from happening. By all accounts, they seemed to have been successful in preventing a serious economic downturn as a result of the 1990's boom years. But as is often the case, in hindsight, it is now widely regarded by economists that the Fed went too far in lowering rates and loosening the money supply and the stock market mania was replaced with a housing mania. When you give people access to (almost) free money such as we did in the early 2000's when the use of previously rarely-used interest-only mortgages and option ARMs (optional payment adjustable rate mortgages) became commonplace, people tend to go crazy. And this time was no exception. Housing prices were bid up to unconscionable amounts.
So now we are having to deal with the aftermath of the housing bubble. Okay, so we roll up our sleeves and start to work on cleaning up this mess. Give us a year or two or three and ... What!? Wait a minute! What's happening? Oil is rising past $100 per barrel! It's up to $120, $130! What's going on? And that's not all that is rising. Commodities (the fancy term for "stuff") are rising across the board! How could this be happening?
The developing markets (a.k.a. emerging markets) are coming of age and starting to flex their economic muscle. They want their share of oil, corn, soap, tobacco, yogurt, A/C, beer, etc., etc., etc. The suppliers were caught flat-footed as their estimates for the demand from the developing markets were way too low. As any student of the Dismal Science will tell you, if the demand rises and the supply can't catch up, the price rises.
So, in 2008, our economy is hit with a "one-two punch." We want to keep money loose to counter the downturn from the deflating housing bubble but at the same time, we want to tighten money to keep commodity prices from accelerating. It is not an enviable position to be in for our authorities in charge of our money supplies, the central bankers. Are Mr. Bernanke and his cohorts up to the tasks? We'll know in a few years. (It doesn't comfort me personally when I watch him stammer on with that "deer in the headlights" stare he sports.) But I do believe that we will get through all of this in due time. It's just sad that we didn't prepare for it better. We Americans are incredibly resourceful and resilient once we have a goal. Thirty years ago, we knew that the days of cheap energy were numbered. But we put our collective heads in the sand and acted as if they would go on forever. Well, the time has come.
Can we answer your specific question about $0.99 per gallon for gasoline returning again? It's doubtful that we will see $0.99 again. But there's no question that oil and gasoline prices will fall in the foreseeable future. At these elevated prices, the supply will increase and, at the same time, demand will fall, and again, our students of the Dismal Science will tell us that the prices will eventually fall. Many of those in the industry are looking for the price of a barrel to fall below $100 within the next two or three years. How far below is a matter of conjecture but one often hears $70 to $80 (as at that price, using "shale oil" becomes profitable). It could go lower if the demand falls propitiously.
Personally, I have no idea nor experience regarding your supposition that more women enter the world's oldest profession when a recession hits. But I certainly think it is a worthy course of study and given the sufficient seed money, I would be most happy to embark single-handedly upon a worldwide, long-range, longitudinal, double-blind study to determine the veracity of your theory. I wonder which agency would we can hit up for the grant?
Yours in mongering,
gmbrldx
However, the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank were far different in both cases. In the 1930's, the Fed (which had only been around since the mid-1910's) made a huge mistake by contracting the money supply and making it harder to borrow money. This is what led to the Great Depression, not the stock market crash of 1929 (as many believe). Their reasoning for contracting seemed valid at the time but it turned out to be disastrous. (A discussion of the reasoning involves the use of borrowed money to buy stocks, a technique called margining. Suffice to say, borrowing money to buy an investment that can lose money is very risky. How would you like to lose $10,000 of borrowed money? Not only did you lose the money, you still have to pay it back!)
The resulting Great Depression is not something we ever want to experience again. Very few of us alive today could begin to imagine what it would be like if one out of every fourth person were unemployed. It is not being an alarmist to say that the best we could wish for would be widespread protests and calls for a different type of economic system. The worst case scenarios are not something we even want to speculate upon.
After the stock market mania of the 1990's, the Fed believed that a loose monetary policy was the key to keeping another serious recession (or even a depression) from happening. By all accounts, they seemed to have been successful in preventing a serious economic downturn as a result of the 1990's boom years. But as is often the case, in hindsight, it is now widely regarded by economists that the Fed went too far in lowering rates and loosening the money supply and the stock market mania was replaced with a housing mania. When you give people access to (almost) free money such as we did in the early 2000's when the use of previously rarely-used interest-only mortgages and option ARMs (optional payment adjustable rate mortgages) became commonplace, people tend to go crazy. And this time was no exception. Housing prices were bid up to unconscionable amounts.
So now we are having to deal with the aftermath of the housing bubble. Okay, so we roll up our sleeves and start to work on cleaning up this mess. Give us a year or two or three and ... What!? Wait a minute! What's happening? Oil is rising past $100 per barrel! It's up to $120, $130! What's going on? And that's not all that is rising. Commodities (the fancy term for "stuff") are rising across the board! How could this be happening?
The developing markets (a.k.a. emerging markets) are coming of age and starting to flex their economic muscle. They want their share of oil, corn, soap, tobacco, yogurt, A/C, beer, etc., etc., etc. The suppliers were caught flat-footed as their estimates for the demand from the developing markets were way too low. As any student of the Dismal Science will tell you, if the demand rises and the supply can't catch up, the price rises.
So, in 2008, our economy is hit with a "one-two punch." We want to keep money loose to counter the downturn from the deflating housing bubble but at the same time, we want to tighten money to keep commodity prices from accelerating. It is not an enviable position to be in for our authorities in charge of our money supplies, the central bankers. Are Mr. Bernanke and his cohorts up to the tasks? We'll know in a few years. (It doesn't comfort me personally when I watch him stammer on with that "deer in the headlights" stare he sports.) But I do believe that we will get through all of this in due time. It's just sad that we didn't prepare for it better. We Americans are incredibly resourceful and resilient once we have a goal. Thirty years ago, we knew that the days of cheap energy were numbered. But we put our collective heads in the sand and acted as if they would go on forever. Well, the time has come.
Can we answer your specific question about $0.99 per gallon for gasoline returning again? It's doubtful that we will see $0.99 again. But there's no question that oil and gasoline prices will fall in the foreseeable future. At these elevated prices, the supply will increase and, at the same time, demand will fall, and again, our students of the Dismal Science will tell us that the prices will eventually fall. Many of those in the industry are looking for the price of a barrel to fall below $100 within the next two or three years. How far below is a matter of conjecture but one often hears $70 to $80 (as at that price, using "shale oil" becomes profitable). It could go lower if the demand falls propitiously.
Personally, I have no idea nor experience regarding your supposition that more women enter the world's oldest profession when a recession hits. But I certainly think it is a worthy course of study and given the sufficient seed money, I would be most happy to embark single-handedly upon a worldwide, long-range, longitudinal, double-blind study to determine the veracity of your theory. I wonder which agency would we can hit up for the grant?
Yours in mongering,
gmbrldx
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